HLIO — Investor Day Dashboard

⚡ Research prep loaded: Swipe to 📊 Research, ❓ Questions, and ⚠️ Risks tabs for the full prep package.

📅 Thursday, March 19 — Travel + Reception

10:45 AM

✈️ Depart PHL → SRQ (American Airlines)

~2.5 hr flight. Land ~1:15 PM. Plenty of time for hotel before 6 PM reception.
Afternoon

Check into hotel, settle in
6:00 – 8:00 PM

Welcome Reception

📍 HLIO HQ — 7456 16th Street East, Sarasota, FL 34243

Business casual. Mgmt team will be there — opportunity for informal face time with Bagan, Evans, Tania.

📊 Friday, March 20 — Investor Day

8:00 AM

Registration & Breakfast

📍 Mote Science Education Aquarium, Sarasota
8:30 AM – 1:30 PM

"Igniting the Momentum: The CORE 2030 Strategy"

Presenters: Sean Bagan (CEO), Jeremy Evans (CFO), executive leadership team

Agenda: Innovation strategy, market/wallet share capture, serviceable market expansion, 2030 financial targets
1:30 PM

Lunch / Networking
2:00 – 3:00 PM

🏭 Sun Hydraulics Factory Tour (shuttle provided)

⚠️ Closed-toe shoes required. Both you and Bob RSVP'd.

📍 Original Sun Hydraulics production facility, Sarasota
3:45 – 4:15 PM

✈️ NetJets: SRQ → PHL

Citation Latitude, 2 passengers (John + Bob)

Arrive PHL ~6:09 – 6:39 PM

👥 Key Contacts

Sean Bagan	President & CEO (since Jan 2025). You hosted him in KOP in Sept 2025.
Jeremy Evans	EVP, CFO. Key person for 2030 financial targets detail.
Tania Almond	VP IR & Corp Comms. Primary relationship. 📞 (941) 362-1333 / (410) 960-4411 ✉️ tania.almond@heliostechnologies.com
Bob Mitchell	Managing Partner / CIO (traveling with you) 📞 (484) 654-1380 ✉️ bmitchell@conestogacapital.com

🌤️ Sarasota Weather

Thursday	Sunny, mid-50s AM → mid-70s PM, light breeze
Friday	Sunny, mid-50s AM → mid-70s PM

🎒 Packing Checklist

Closed-toe shoes — required for factory tour
Business casual (sport coat, no tie)
Light jacket — 50s in the morning
Business cards
iPad / notepad
Phone charger / battery pack
Sunglasses

🏭 Factory Tour — What to Observe

Capacity utilization — how full are the lines?
Automation level vs. what you'd expect from peers
New equipment / capex evidence
Inventory levels (raw materials, WIP, finished goods)
Employee morale / tenure signals
Safety standards and certifications displayed
Customer logos / references visible on floor

💬 Icebreakers & Conversation Starters

Mote Marine	Partnership announced this week. Community commitment + brand. Good opening with Tania.
Faster MultiQTC™	Announced March 3. Ask about early customer reception and order pipeline.
Sept 2025 KOP	Reference your last in-person with Bagan + Tania. "How have things evolved since September?"
JPM Initiation	Jan 2026, OW $80 PT. "Seeing broader sell-side interest since JPM picked you up?"

Price

~$64

Mkt cap ~$2.1B

52-Wk Range

$24.76–$76.47

+167% off low

P/E (FY26E)

~23x

Cons ~$2.75

Net Leverage

1.8x

Down from 2.6x

PT Range

$74–$85

15–30% upside

Thesis Snapshot

Position: CCA holds HLIO across strategies. Tier 1 coverage name.

Bull Case

Turnaround inflecting under Bagan: first full-year sales growth in 3 years in FY25
Self-help + cyclical recovery = double engine for earnings power
Balance sheet improving (1.8x net leverage, down from 2.6x) unlocks M&A optionality
Portfolio simplification (CFP divestiture) refocuses on core manufacturing
Electronics segment diversifying revenue mix with durable growth vectors
Investor Day should provide multi-year financial targets that crystallize the earnings trajectory

Bear Case

Industrial cycle still fragile: PMI barely positive, recovery uneven
Tariff headwinds ($8M in 2H25, higher expected early 2026)
Electronics chip supply risk (memory shortage, geopolitical)
Hydraulics structural risk: electrification may erode TAM over time
Valuation has run: stock +167% off 52-week low
FY26 guide implies 2H deceleration from Q4 exit rate

CORE 2030 Strategy Preview

What We Know

"CORE 2030" branding: focus on core competencies, organic growth, long-term value creation
Pillars: drive innovation, capture market/wallet share, expand serviceable markets
2030 financial targets to be disclosed (main event)
Management has referenced this as the catalyst to articulate the medium-term earnings algorithm
JPM flagged Investor Day as next major catalyst, raised PT to $85

Key Unknowns Watch

Specific 2030 revenue / EBITDA / EPS targets
Organic growth CAGR assumption
EBITDA margin target (current ~20%, history peaked mid-20s)
Role of M&A: bolt-on vs transformative?
TAM expansion: new end markets or adjacencies?
Electronics revenue mix target by 2030 (currently ~37%)
Capex / R&D investment levels
Whether "CORE" is an acronym or just branding

Financial Targets — Street Expectations

Metric	FY26E	FY27E	Implied Direction
Revenue	$840–858M	$885–900M	Mid-to-high single digit organic growth
Adj. EBITDA Margin	19.5–21.0%	~21%+	Expansion through operating leverage
Adj. EPS	$2.73–2.85	$3.10–3.30	15–20% growth path
Net Leverage	~1.2x	~0.7x	Rapid deleveraging → M&A capacity
FCF Conversion	>100%	>100%	Sustained strong cash generation

Bull case 2030: If mgmt targets $1.0–1.2B revenue with 22–25% EBITDA margins, implies ~$5–6+ EPS power. Key question: organic-only or includes M&A?

Q4 2025 Earnings Recap

Revenue

$210.7M

+17% Y/y | +29% pro forma

Gross Margin

33.6%

+350 bps Y/y

EBITDA Margin

20.1%

+270 bps Y/y

Adj. EPS

$0.81

vs $0.72 cons | +145% Y/y

FCF (Q4)

~$40M

19.1% of sales | ~150% conversion

Hydraulics — $132.1M

+10% Y/y reported, +27% pro forma
Mobile, construction, ag all strong
EMEA +33%, Americas +22%
Operating margin 18.7%, up 490 bps
Incrementals ~42% Strong

Electronics — $78.6M

+31% Y/y organic
Health & wellness, industrial, mobile demand + new customer wins
Incrementals ~22% Watch
Mix/investment drag on margins

FY26 Guidance

Metric	1Q26	FY26
Revenue	$218–223M +12% vs St	$820–860M
Hydraulics	—	$510–530M (~5% growth)
Electronics	—	$310–330M (~7% growth)
EBITDA Margin	19.5–20.5%	19.5–21.0%
Adj. EPS	$0.65–0.70 vs $0.60 St	$2.60–2.90

What Street Liked

Q4 beat magnitude (revenue +7% above consensus)
1Q26 guide materially above expectations
Margin improvement trajectory, especially Hydraulics incrementals
Record cash flow and deleveraging pace
Management confidence / "just getting started" tone

What Street Watched

FY26 full-year guide only in line at midpoint despite strong 1Q
Electronics incrementals below Hydraulics
Tariff headwinds expected to escalate
Chip supply constraints for Electronics
Consumer/marine end markets still weak

Sellside Consensus

Broker	Rating	PT	FY26E EPS	FY27E EPS	Key View
JP Morgan	OW	$85	$2.83	$3.21	Most bullish. CORE 2030 = catalyst. 17.5x EBITDA.
KeyBanc	OW	$82	$2.85	$3.30	Self-help + cyclical recovery. Conservative guide.
Baird	OP	$81	—	—	Margin expansion + Investor Day catalyst.
Stifel	Buy	$74–76	$2.73	$3.14	Constructive on 1Q guide, cautious on macro.
CJS Securities	MO	$75	$2.77	$3.10	Balanced. Raised from $62.

Key debate: All 5 brokers call FY26 guidance conservative. At ~$64, stock trades ~15.7x 2026E EV/EBITDA, below mid-cycle historical multiples. Investor Day should help the multiple if targets are credible.

Peer Context

Hydraulics / Motion Control Peers

Company	Recent Signal
Parker Hannifin (PH)	FQ2 '26: organic growth driven by A&D. NA industrial returned to positive. Highlighting digitalization, software control, steer-by-wire at CONEXPO 2026.
Danfoss	Private. Leading in power solutions and climate. Investing in electrification and digital hydraulics.
Bosch Rexroth	Part of Bosch Group. Advanced industrial and mobile hydraulics.
Eaton (ETN)	Diversified power management. Hydraulics smaller piece. Electrification transition narrative.

Industry Context

Global hydraulic equipment market: ~$44B in 2026, growing at ~5% CAGR to ~$57B by 2031
CONEXPO 2026 trends: digitalization, software control, steer-by-wire, electro-hydraulic integration
Parker Hannifin highlighting "whole vehicle integration strategy connecting hydraulics with intelligence"
PMI inflecting positive early 2026; industrial production improving. Recovery early-stage but gaining traction.

Read-through for HLIO: Large peers investing in digital/electro-hydraulic transition validates Electronics segment as strategic. Industry ~5% CAGR sets baseline; HLIO needs to show share gains and NPI-driven above-market growth.

12 Priority Questions

Thesis Confirmation

Question 1

CORE 2030 Financial Targets

What are the specific revenue, EBITDA margin, and EPS targets for 2030? What organic growth CAGR is embedded? How much assumes M&A?

Question 2

Revenue Bridge to 2030

Walk us through the growth algorithm: how much comes from market growth, share gains, new products/NPI, wallet share expansion, and new end market penetration?

CORE 2030 Strategy Specifics

Question 3

Serviceable Market Expansion

Which specific adjacencies or new verticals are you targeting? What is the current TAM vs the 2030 TAM assumption?

Question 4

Innovation Cadence

How does the NPI pipeline translate to revenue? Revenue contribution target from products launched in the last 3 years? R&D spending trend as % of sales?

Segment-Level Questions

Question 5

Hydraulics Path to 2030

Hydraulics margins hit 18.7% operating in Q4 with ~42% incrementals. What is the structural margin ceiling? Is 20%+ achievable? What role does Sun vs Faster play?

Question 6

Electronics Growth & Margin Trajectory

Electronics grew +31% organic but incrementals were only ~22%. Path to better margin conversion? Is Health & Wellness (Balboa) a growth driver or a drag? Electronics EBITDA margin target for 2030?

Question 7

Segment Revenue Mix

Where does management see the Hydraulics/Electronics split by 2030? Currently ~63/37. Goal to get Electronics to 40%+? 50%?

Capital Allocation

Question 8

M&A Pipeline

Net leverage approaching 1.2x by YE26, 0.7x by 2027. What's the M&A framework under CORE 2030? Bolt-on vs larger deals? Target end markets/capabilities? Maximum leverage for a deal?

Question 9

Buyback vs M&A

~$86M remaining buyback authorization. How do you balance repurchases vs M&A given the improving balance sheet? Target leverage range for capital deployment?

Competitive & Market Dynamics

Question 10

Electrification / Digital Risk

How does Helios position as OEMs adopt electro-hydraulic and fully electric solutions? Threat to core Sun cartridge valve business, or opportunity for Electronics crossover?

Question 11

Tariff & Supply Chain

Tariffs cost $8M in 2H25, expected higher in early 2026. Net tariff impact for FY26? How much can pricing offset? Supply chain actions on semiconductor components?

Margin Trajectory

Question 12

Long-Term Margin Algorithm

Where does consolidated EBITDA margin settle in a normalized demand environment? Prior cycle peaked in the mid-20s. Achievable again? What are the structural headwinds vs tailwinds?

Data Points to Confirm

2030 Revenue Target — consensus expects ~$1.0–1.2B; below $1B would disappoint
2030 EBITDA Margin Target — street expects 22–25%; current run-rate ~20%
Organic Growth CAGR — 5–7% conservative, 7–10% bullish
M&A Assumptions — included in targets or separate?
NPI Revenue Contribution — % of revenue from products launched in last 3 years
Wallet Share Metric — any KPI around revenue per customer or share of spend?
Electronics Segment Margin — structural margin potential; currently lagging Hydraulics
Hydraulics Operating Margin Ceiling — 18.7% in Q4, up 490 bps; 20%+ the new normal?
Capex as % of Sales — current ~3%; does CORE 2030 require step-up?
FCF Conversion Target — sustaining >100% important for bull case
Leverage Guardrails — floor and ceiling for net leverage
Commercial Wins Pipeline — >$50M referenced; validate and detail
Faster Brand Ag Exposure — European/Chinese ag market growth outlook
Balboa (Health & Wellness) — path to sustained growth after choppiness

What to Listen For

Tone & Confidence Signals

Bullish cues

Specificity on targets, willingness to commit to 2030 numbers with conviction
Upbeat body language around M&A capacity
"Acceleration" language

Hedging cues

Excessive macro caveats, wide target ranges
Disclaimers about "depending on end market recovery"
Vague M&A statements

Specific Things to Probe

"Just getting started" vs actual proof: Bagan has used this phrase. Does the 2030 plan back it up with numbers?
M&A readiness: "Active pipeline" / "well-developed funnel" / "disciplined but ready" Bullish vs "patient" / "nothing imminent" Neutral
Electronics conviction: Does management treat Electronics as a growth engine or a secondary segment? Watch time allocation.
Electrification positioning: Defensiveness about electric threats = Yellow flag. Confident explanation of hydraulics endurance + Electronics bridge = Green flag
Tariff/macro hedging: Significant time on macro risks during a forward-looking event = Caution. Tone should be offensive, not defensive.

Thesis Risks

Cyclical downturn: If industrial recovery stalls, FY26 guidance has less upside buffer
M&A execution risk: Rapid deleveraging creates pressure to deploy. Bad deal destroys thesis.
Electronics structural margin: If can't drive 25%+ EBITDA margins long-term, mix shift doesn't help
Tariff escalation: $8M 2H25 impact could grow materially
Chip supply: Memory chip constraints flagged explicitly
Electrification disruption: Hydraulic TAM erosion as OEMs shift to electric. Long-tail but real.
Customer concentration: Outsized dependence on specific OEMs or end markets
Key man risk: Bagan is the turnaround CEO. Team depth matters.

Investor Day Risks

Targets too conservative: 2030 revenue <$1B or EBITDA margin <22% = disappointment
Targets too aggressive: Heroic M&A or unsustainable organic growth = credibility risk
M&A-dependent plan: Primarily acquisition-driven vision may be discounted
Lack of specificity: Buzzwords without KPIs, qualitative without quantitative
Margin underwhelm: EBITDA target only ~21–22% (barely above current) = no margin story
Management depth: If segment presidents can't present credibly, execution risk rises
No new info: Rehashing Q4 themes without incremental detail = non-event, stock sells off

Bear Case Risks to Probe

2030 targets overly dependent on M&A (organic not enough)
Margin targets don't improve meaningfully from current levels
Electronics profitability remains structurally lower
Management can't articulate a clear competitive moat beyond niche market positioning
Capex or investment step-up larger than expected